The 2024 Kentucky Derby’s purse has been given its bracing $2 million bump to $5 million, an aptly enormous signal that America’s storied kickoff Triple Crown gateway race is at its sesquicentennial. The field has shaped up, led by morning line favorite Fierceness, 5-2, who drew the perhaps enviable No. 17 stall in the starting gate, but which, given the constellation of this patchwork field, may not actually come through with the freedom that an outside hole at Churchill is said to offer.
In descending order of probability to win, Fierceness’ three chief rivals in the trackside chatter and in the morning line are: Chad Brown-trained Sierra Leone (3-1), breaking very nearly on the rail from the No. 2 stall, with Tyler Gaffalione up; and two stalls to Sierra Leone’s right, breaking from the four-hole, is Catching Freedom (8-1), trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Flavien Prat; and sharing the fourth rung of the ladder at 10-1 are a second athlete from Brad Cox’s barn, Just a Touch, in stall No. 8, and one of the field’s two Japanese runners, Forever Young, at 10-1, breaking from stall No. 11, trained by Daisuke Takayanagi, with Kazushi Kimura in the irons.
But before we dive into whether Forever Young or Sierra Leone are going surgically dismantle Fierceness, or whether Fierceness will be taken apart by his stablemate Just A Touch just because he feels like it, or whether Fierceness excellent works and his dominance are going to take the day, here’s a refresher on yesterday’s draw.
(Post Position, Trainer, Jockey, Morning Line)
1. Dornoch, Danny Gargan, Luis Saez, 20-1
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2. Sierra Leone, Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione, 3-1
3. Mystik Dan, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 20-1
4. Catching Freedom, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 8-1
5. Catalytic, Saffie Joseph Jr., Jose Ortiz, 30-1
6. Just Steel, D. Wayne Lukas, Keith Asmussen, 20-1
7. Honor Marie, Whit Beckman, Ben Curtis, 20-1
8. Just a Touch, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 10-1
9. Encino, Brad Cox, Axel Concepcion, 20-1
10. T O Password, Daisuke Takayanagi, Kazushi Kimura, 30-1
11. Forever Young, Yosh*to Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai, 10-1
12. Track Phantom, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, 20-1
13. West Saratoga, Larry Demeritte, Jesus Castanon, 50-1
14. Endlessly, Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli, 30-1
15. Domestic Product, Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz Jr., 30-1
16. Grand Mo the First, Victor Barboza Jr., Emisael Jaramillo, 50-1
17. Fierceness, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 5-2
18. Stronghold, Phil D’Amato, Antonio Fresu, 20-1
19. Resilience, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 20-1
20. Society Man, Danny Gargan, Frankie Dettori, 50-1
(Source: Churchill Downs)
An entertaining prospect for a spoiler to all of the above is Just Steel — at 20-1 in the morning line and breaking from the middle of the pack in the six-hole — trained by the senior statesman of the training world, Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas. Lukas, 88, can be said to be getting on, but trainers and jockeys competing with him have learned over the five decades of his Thoroughbred racing career to be careful of the man and his athletes. Lukas, full of vim and vinegar still, has to date four Kentucky Derby wins to his credit, as well as six victories in the Preakness and four in the Belmont Stakes. Just Steel rightfully earned his berth on the Derby trail under jockey Keith Asmussen, who will be in the irons on Saturday.
It’s a long established fact that, with its enormous fields of 20 horses, Kentucky Derby starts are all about the crush. Over the years this has led to a kind of side game in Derby handicapping in considering the number of race winners, or lack thereof, breaking from this or that stall in the gate. Generally speaking, the horses inside generally face a lot of bumping and grinding with the field coming down on them to gain position going into the first turn, but, depending on how the start goes — in other words, no matter the post position, if you get the jump on your competitors heading inside toward the rail to save ground, you get the jump.
But that’s only the general rule. Of interest to the race favorite’s connections, Todd Pletcher especially, will be the statistic that stall No. 17 has not produced a winner in the last 19 Derbies. Suffice it to say that the rail, held this year by Dornoch, is considered pure bad luck, or at least, it was
But that’s only the general rule. Of interest to the race favorite’s connections, Todd Pletcher especially, will be the statistic that stall No. 17 has not produced a winner in the last 19 Derbies, which is not great, and especially so for an outside position. Suffice it to say that the rail, held this year by Dornoch, and post position No. 2, are considered pure bad luck, since they have not produced a Derby winner since 1986.
Brad Cox will be looking for Sierra Leone to break stall No. 2’s 38-year-long dry spell on Saturday. But Sierra Leone’s challenge is going to be to get out from under the roaring tsunami of eighteen runners, including all of his chief rivals, thundering down on him from the outside.
